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G1 Therapeutics, Inc. (GTHX)·Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2024 delivered double-digit sequential growth: COSELA net revenue rose 12% QoQ to $15.8M; total revenue was $16.5M. Operating expenses fell to $20.1M, and diluted EPS was $(0.10) .
  • Year-over-year comparisons were distorted by a $31.3M one-time license payment in Q2 2023; ex-licensing, product sales grew to $15.8M from $11.1M. Net income swung to a $(5.5)M loss from $8.7M last year as license revenue normalized .
  • Guidance reaffirmed: 2024 COSELA net revenue $60–$70M; opex expected 25%–30% below 2023; cash runway supports anticipated profitability in H2 2025 .
  • Strategic catalyst: definitive agreement to be acquired by Pharmacosmos for $7.15/share; no Q2 earnings call was held due to the pending transaction, which anchors near-term valuation narrative and reduces event risk .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • COSELA commercial momentum: vial volume grew 10% QoQ and net revenue grew 12% QoQ in Q2 2024, reflecting ongoing uptake in ES-SCLC .
  • Cost discipline: operating expenses declined to $20.1M (vs $23.5M in Q1 and $30.9M in Q2 2023), with continued focus on SG&A and R&D efficiencies .
  • Management reaffirmed confidence: “we reaffirmed our 2024 net sales guidance of between $60 million and $70 million, which is indicative of our continued confidence in the business” — Jack Bailey, CEO .

What Went Wrong

  • R&D setback: PRESERVE 2 (1L mTNBC) failed primary OS endpoint (HR 0.91; p=0.884), prompting discontinuation of spending in the mTNBC indication and market .
  • Year-over-year revenue decline: total revenue fell to $16.5M from $42.4M due to absence of last year’s $31.3M one-time license payment; EPS moved to $(0.10) from $0.14 diluted .
  • No Q2 call/transcript: company canceled the planned call due to the Pharmacosmos transaction, limiting real-time Q&A and clarification opportunities for investors .

Financial Results

Headline Comparisons (prior quarter and prior year)

MetricQ4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$14.9 $14.5 $16.5
Net Product Sales ($USD Millions)$13.9 $14.1 $15.8
License Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.95 $0.40 $0.71
Income (Loss) from Operations ($USD Millions)$(8.9) $(9.0) $(3.5)
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$(10.9) $(10.2) $(5.5)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.21) $(0.20) $(0.10)
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Marketable Securities ($USD Millions)$82.2 $65.2 $60.7
Operating Margin (%)−60.0% −62.6% −21.4%
Net Income Margin (%)−73.1% −70.6% −33.1%

Notes: Operating Margin and Net Income Margin are calculated from cited revenue and income figures.

Year-over-Year (Q2 2024 vs Q2 2023)

MetricQ2 2023Q2 2024
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$42.4 $16.5
Net Product Sales ($USD Millions)$11.1 $15.8
License Revenue ($USD Millions)$31.3 $0.71
Income (Loss) from Operations ($USD Millions)$11.5 $(3.5)
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$8.7 $(5.5)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.14 $(0.10)

Segment/Revenue Components

Revenue ComponentQ4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024
Net Product Sales ($USD Millions)$13.9 $14.1 $15.8
License Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.95 $0.40 $0.71
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$14.9 $14.5 $16.5

KPIs (commercial and financial)

KPIQ4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024
COSELA Vial Volume Growth (QoQ)Impacted by platinum chemo shortages (context) +4% QoQ +10% QoQ
COSELA Net Revenue Growth (QoQ)+29% +2% +12%
Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$23.8 $23.5 $20.1
Cash RunwayInto 2025 Into Q3 2025 To anticipated profitability in H2 2025

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
COSELA Net Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2024$60–$70 (initiated 2/28/24) $60–$70 (reaffirmed 8/8/24) Maintained
Operational ExpensesFY 2024Not specified in % terms25%–30% below 2023 Introduced/Clarified
Cash Runway2024–2025Into 2025 Into Q3 2025; sufficient to reach anticipated profitability in H2 2025 Extended/Clarified
Profitability TimingH2 2025Not previously specifiedAnticipated profitability in H2 2025 Introduced

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No Q2 2024 earnings call was held due to the Pharmacosmos transaction .

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2023)Previous Mentions (Q1 2024)Current Period (Q2 2024)Trend
COSELA Commercial UptakeStrong Q4 vial growth; chemo shortages noted Vial volume +4% QoQ; confident in $60–$70M guidance Vial volume +10% QoQ; net revenue +12% QoQ; guidance reaffirmed Improving momentum
R&D Execution (mTNBC)PRESERVE 2 final analysis expected Q3 2024 Final analysis expected late Q2 2024 PRESERVE 2 missed OS; mTNBC spending discontinued Negative; pivot to ES-SCLC
Ex-US Partnering/LicensingStrategic updates (ASCO evidence, SABCS analyses) Lerociclib deal with Pepper Bio (upfront, milestones, royalties) Lerociclib deals with Pepper Bio & Deimos Biosciences reiterated Portfolio monetization continues
Macro (Chemo Shortages)Acknowledged impact in Q4 Less emphasizedNot highlighted in Q2 releaseStabilizing/neutral
Corporate ActionsNoneNonePharmacosmos acquisition for $7.15/share; tender to commence New M&A catalyst

Management Commentary

  • “We are excited about what will be possible by the combined Pharmacosmos + G1 team… the double-digit quarter-over-quarter growth we experienced in vial volume and net revenue represents continued progress… We also reaffirmed our 2024 net sales guidance of between $60 million and $70 million.” — Jack Bailey, CEO .
  • “The unexpected results from PRESERVE 2 underscore the challenge of developing new therapies for triple negative breast cancer… We will now further our focus on both accelerating and expanding the growth of the ES-SCLC business to achieve anticipated company profitability in the second half of 2025…” — Jack Bailey, CEO .
  • “Our focus for 2024 is on developing trilaciclib toward potential category leadership in triple negative breast cancer and maximizing the uptake of COSELA… we remain confident in our annual net sales guidance of $60 to $70 million.” — Jack Bailey, CEO (Q1 release) .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q2 earnings call or webcast occurred due to the pending Pharmacosmos transaction, so no Q&A was available .
  • Clarifications from releases: license revenue in Q2 ($0.7M) primarily related to an upfront payment from Pepper Bio; cost of goods sold decreased vs last year due to headcount reductions and lower weighted average cost of finished goods .
  • Guidance reiteration: COSELA net revenue $60–$70M; opex 25%–30% below 2023; runway to anticipated profitability in H2 2025 .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q2 2024 could not be retrieved for GTHX via our data connection; therefore, a formal “vs. consensus” comparison is unavailable at this time (consensus unavailable) [GetEstimates error].
  • Given the lack of consensus, we anchor assessment on sequential trends, year-over-year product growth, and guidance credibility .
MetricQ2 2024 ConsensusActual Q2 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)N/A (consensus unavailable)$16.5
Diluted EPS ($USD)N/A (consensus unavailable)$(0.10)

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Commercial trajectory is improving: COSELA net revenue and vial volume both advanced double-digit sequentially, strengthening confidence in FY guidance .
  • Mix normalization: YoY total revenue decline reflects the absence of a prior-year one-time license payment; underlying product sales grew YoY to $15.8M .
  • Cost execution supports breakeven path: opex reductions and guidance for 25%–30% lower 2024 opex vs 2023 underpin a credible bridge to anticipated profitability in H2 2025 .
  • Strategic de-risking: discontinuation of mTNBC expenditures after PRESERVE 2 miss and focus on ES-SCLC sharpen the near-term playbook around COSELA .
  • Corporate action sets near-term price anchor: Pharmacosmos tender offer at $7.15/share introduces a defined transaction catalyst and reduces near-term uncertainty; no Q2 call limits incremental disclosures until deal completion .
  • Watch license monetization: Pepper Bio and Deimos Biosciences agreements provide optionality via milestones and royalties, albeit with timing uncertainty .
  • Risk monitor: chemotherapy supply dynamics and ex-US partnering progress remain variables, though not acute in Q2 disclosures .